Computer models will be the death of us
It’s very likely that you have heard the old saying, “garbage in and garbage out” when it comes to computers. I think this description is perfectly appropriate when it comes to computer models, but, I prefer to put it I think in a much better way….”computers only know what they are told to know.”
There are a great number of assumptions that go into computer models, and by making only minor adjustments to those assumptions the outcome can be greatly changed. The problem with these assumptions is that they are moving targets and it can never be known which target to move where in order to create what is to be the likely outcome. Computer models can be used for an attempt at genuine informative purposes as with the Chinese Flu or they can be used for corrupt purposes as with climate change.
The recent talk of how computer models have wildly exaggerated the number of projected infections, deaths, and needs arising from the Chinese Flu is troubling, but not at all surprising if you have been following the climate modeling debacle. I have no doubt that those creating the models in order to attempt to predict how the Chinese Flu will progress are doing it with good intentions. However, good intentions don’t cut it. If I attempt to give you a free haircut and cut your ear off in the process, I don’t think you will give me credit for trying to be a good ol’ boy.
With the Chinese Flu, modelers have no clue what we are dealing with right now, because it is simply too new, unknown, and chaotic. Besides, we don’t really know how long its been in the United States. I think its been around a lot longer than generally thought, because we don’t know how long China had been hiding it from the rest of the world.
These models are being created using faulty assumptions that are doing nothing but scaring the hell out of everyone, including policy makers which then can lead to bad policy. Computer models are not science nor are they data. Policies should be created using facts and data only, not suppositions. We need to stop playing Nostradamus and knock it off with the modeling, and deal with this issue by figuring out what works, by using real data and facts as we learn them.
The climate models are where we get into corruption, because they are political tools. Climate models are intentionally used to scare the hell out of everyone in order to further the agenda of the climate jihadists. It’s a form of appeal to authority, and it’s an ages old tactic that the meek have allowed to be used against themselves by those in power in order to appropriate their freedoms.
Trying to model the Chinese Flu is impossible enough, but trying to model the climate is even more impossible, if that’s possible. Climate is a system of complete chaos and is affected by the oceans, the atmosphere, forces outside the Earth’s atmosphere, by activity within the Earth, and all of which occur on different and varying timescales.
Computer models are nice toys and fun to play with, but should never be used for policy decisions. The notion that a mathematical formula can be created to predict the future of a chaotic system is an act of utter futility in the case of the Chinese Flu, and utter corruption in the case of climate change. There probably has always existed in the human condition the desire to predict the future. I think we are better off influencing the future, and leaving the predicting to the guys wearing the sandwich boards where the appeal to authority does not apply.